Clippers to win NBA title?

Every once in a while I like to take the mid-season standings in the NBA or NHL and run through a simulated playoffs to see who might win the championship. You might think such an exercise is entirely meaningless, but in 2011, my NHL simulation showed the Los Angeles Kings beating the Boston Bruins. Of course, the Bruins won the cup in 2011, the Kings in 2012. Coincidence? I think not. So get your betting hats on, contact your bookie, and read on.

The standings at the 41-game mark of the NBA follow. Remember the NBA has a slightly different seeding system whereby the three division champions in each conference must appear in the top four playoff spots (as opposed to the top 3 in the NHL) although that doesn't impact things this time.

East          W   L
Miami        28  13
New York     26  15
Indiana      25  16
Chicago      25  16
Brooklyn     25  16
Atlanta      23  18
Milwaukee    22  19
Boston       20  21
   
West          W   L
OKC          32   9
LA Clippers  32   9
San Antonio  30  11
Memphis      27  14
Golden State 26  15
Denver       24  17
Utah         22  19
Houston      21  20

First, the tiebreakers: Indiana beat Chicago in their only meeting so far so they are the Central Division champions and get the 3rd spot in the East. Out West, the Thunder beat the Clippers both times they have played so they take top spot.

Playoffs based on season series so far:

1st Round
Miami vs Boston - Heat 1-1, Heat lost in 2OT so they advance
NY vs Milwaukee - Knicks 1-0
Indiana vs Atlanta - Hawks 2-0
Chicago vs Brooklyn - Bulls 1-0

OKC vs Houston - Thunder 2-0
LAC vs Utah - Clippers 3-0
San Antonio vs Denver - 1-1, Spurs advance on better record
Memphis vs Golden State - Grizzlies 2-0

2nd Round
Miami vs Chicago - Bulls 1-0
NY vs Atlanta - 0-0, Knicks advance on better record (the teams played Jan 27th, which was after game 41 for both so not counted)
OKC vs Memphis  - Grizzlies 1-0
LAC vs San Antonio - Clippers 2-0

Conference Finals
Chicago vs NY - Bulls 3-0
LAC vs Memphis - Clippers 2-0

Final
Chicago vs LAC - Clippers 2-0

So there you have it. The Clippers are your NBA favourites halfway through the season. Of course, since then, they have lost 4 in a row and are now 32-13, much like the LA Kings did after my prediction in 2011. And with Derrick Rose due back in late February, the Bulls are probably the team to beat. Look for the Clippers to take the title in 2014 instead.

Best,

Sean

Read More

NHL Playoff Predictions

Last year at this time, I ran a simple simulation of the NHL playoffs based on the regular season records. Overtime wins are given priority over shootout wins, and if a series is tied, the team with the better record moves on.

Here's how this year's playoffs shape up:

East

Ottawa over NY Rangers 3-1

Washington over Boston 3-1
Florida over New Jersey 2-1-1
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh 4-2

All upsets - the four favorites actually lost the season series.

Ottawa over Florida 3-1
Philadelphia over Washington 3-1

Philadelphia and Ottawa tied 2-1-1 but Philadelphia advances because their extra-time win came in OT while Ottawa needed a shootout.

West
Vancouver over LA 2-1-1
St. Louis over San Jose 4-0
Phoenix over Chicago 3-1
Nashville and Detroit tied 3-3, Nashville advances based on the better overall record although Detroit outscored them (more on that later)

The four teams with home advantage won the season series.

Nashville over Vancouver 2-1-1
St. Louis over Phoenix 3-1

Nashville over St. Louis 4-1-1

Stanley Cup Final
Philadelphia and Nashville split their two games. Nashville wins based on their slightly better overall record although Philadelphia outscored the Predators 6-5.

Amazingly, this is the same matchup as predicted last year, with Philly taking that one. As you know, it wasn't very accurate. This year will be different I am sure. Update: No, it won't.

The real NHL tiebreaker rules include goal differential, which I ignore in this little simulation. It makes no difference in the East, but in the West, Detroit would advance instead of Nashville. Vancouver would then beat Detroit (series was tied 2-1-1 and tied in goals as well, so Vancouver moves on based on better record) . St.Louis beats Vancouver 2-1-1 to make it to the final where they would beat Philly based on their win in their only meeting back in October.

My personal predictions are essentially the opposite in the East, where Pittsburgh and the Rangers should meet in the final with the Penguins moving on to win the Cup over Nashville, who will eliminate Vancouver in the Western Final. As always, it should be an interesting and exciting playoffs.

Update: My Cup picks have both been eliminated, so I give up. Truly a bizarre playoff with road teams dominating.

As for the season series simulation, it was right 5 of 8 times in the first round and 3 of 4 in the second (Philly edged NJ 7-6 during the regular season).

For what it is worth, the Kings beat Phoenix 8-7 during the season with 3 of 6 games going to overtime. The Rangers outpointed New Jersey so look for a Rangers-Kings final and a very happy NHL.

The four possible finals and the season series:
NYR-LA - Kings won the only meeting in OT, game was the season opener in Stockholm
NYR-Phx - Rangers took both games, including one in a shootout
NJ-LA - Devils took both, including one in a shootout (didn't matter, Kings won the Cup 4 games to 2)
NJ-Phx - Coyotes won the only matchup 5-3 at home

Best,

Sean

Read More

NHL Playoff Race After 68 Games

At the end of 2011, I posted the NHL standings after 27 games, because at that time, some teams had played more games than others and it was tough to see just where they stood relative to each other. The 27-game mark is also about 1/3 of the way through the season, and I intended to post an update after 55 games, which would be the 2/3 mark. However, most teams completed their 55th game while I was on my most recent road trip and I didn't have time to do the analysis. So I've let the schedule run on a bit and am now posting the standings after 68 games played, as this makes for exactly half a season since the first post.

First, here are the points for the middle half of the season, ignoring divisional breakdowns.

East
NY Rangers      55
New Jersey      54
Pittsburgh      53
Ottawa          49
Boston          48
Philadelphia    48
Carolina        47
Washington      45
Tampa Bay       45
Winnipeg        44
Florida         43
NY Islanders    41
Buffalo         40
Toronto         36
Montreal        35

West
St. Louis       60
Nashville       59
Vancouver       59
Detroit         56
Dallas          48
Calgary         48
Colorado        47
Anaheim         47
San Jose        45
Chicago         44
Los Angeles     44
Phoenix         43
Columbus        32
Minnesota       31
Edmonton        30

St. Louis and New York Rangers led their conferences, which is not surprising as they both lead after 68 games as well. What is clear is that the West had a better top four with Detroit's 56 points enough to take first in the East. Perhaps the most interesting point is that the top three teams in the East are from the same division (Atlantic), and 3 of 4 in the West are also from the same division (Central) . I don't think it is much of a stretch to predict a Stanley Cup final between squads from these two divisions.

Toronto was only one point better than woeful Montreal during that stretch. They won 15 games in their first 27, then 15 in their next 41. See you next year.

Here's the 68-game standings, with that teams conference position after 27 games in brackets:

East            GP  W   L  OT   PTS
NY Rangers (1)  68  43  18  7   93
Boston (2)      68  40  25  3   83
Florida (3)     68  32  23 13   77
Pittsburgh (5)  68  42  21  5   89
Philadelphia (4)68  39  22  7   85
New Jersey (10) 68  39  24  5   83
Ottawa (9)      68  35  25  8   78
Washington (8)  68  34  28  6   74
-----------------------------------
Winnipeg (11)   68  32  28  8   72
Buffalo (7)     68  31  29  8   70
Tampa Bay (13)  68  31  30  7   69
Toronto (6)     68  30  30  8   68
Carolina (15)   68  26  27 15   67
Islanders (14)  68  28  31  9   65
Montreal (12)   68  26  32 10   62

West            GP  W   L  OT  PTS
St. Louis (6)   68  43  18  7   93
Vancouver (5)   68  42  18  8   92
Dallas (8)      68  37  26  5   79
Detroit (2)     68  44  21  3   91
Nashville (11)  68  40  21  7   87
Chicago (4)     68  36  25  7   79
San Jose (3)    68  34  25  9   77
Phoenix (7)     68  33  25 10   76
-----------------------------------
Colorado (12)   68  35  29  4   74
Calgary (13)    68  31  25 12   74
Los Angeles (9) 68  31  25 12   74
Anaheim (14)    68  29  29 10   68
Minnesota (1)   68  29  29 10   68
Edmonton (10)   68  26  35  7   59
Columbus (15)   68  22  39  7   51

Nothing much surprising here, there are only two spots up for grabs in the East with Buffalo going up against the Southeast teams, one of which will take the 3rd seed. Essentially Ottawa and New Jersey played themselves into the playoffs at the expense of Buffalo and Toronto.

In the West, Nashville knocked out LA, but the Kings are on the doorstep with two other teams in what should be an interesting race.

Generally though, both conferences have four stronger teams that should be fighting it out in the second round. However, note the two 4-5 matchups, both between these superior teams. The weak 3rd seed in both conferences means it is better to finish 6th than 5th, at least in the first round.

Let's have a quick playoff simulation, using the regular season series:

1st round

NY Rangers/Washington - Rangers lead 2-1

Boston/Ottawa - Boston leads 4-1

Florida/New Jersey - Florida leads 2-1-1

Pittsburgh/Philadelphia - Philadelphia lead 2-1

St. Louis/Phoenix - St. Louis leads 2-0

Vancouver/San Jose - Vancouver leads 3-0-1

Dallas/Chicago - Dallas leads 2-1

Detroit/Nashville - Detroit leads 3-2

No upsets here.

2nd round

NY Rangers/Philadelphia - Rangers lead 5-0

Boston/Florida - Boston leads 2-1

St. Louis/Detroit - Detroit leads 3-2

Vancouver/Dallas - Dallas leads 2-0

The West sees top two seeds go down.

Semi-finals

NY Rangers/Boston - Rangers lead 3-0

Dallas/Detroit - Detroit leads 4-0

Weak third seed finally shown the exit in the West.

Stanley Cup

NY Rangers/Detroit - Rangers won on March 21st, so they will be the champs!

Update (June, 2012): Nope, LA wins, just as I predicted last year! So look for the Rangers to win in 2013, assuming there is a season.

Best,

Sean

Read More

NHL Standings After 27 Games

During the season, team schedules can vary considerably with some teams having played several more games than their competition. This can make it difficult to accurately assess just how well one squad is doing relative to their peers, particularly in the NHL where points are the measuring stick rather than win percentage. With some teams having played four more games than others, the standings can be a bit misleading at first glance. To overcome that, I like to look at the standings with all teams having played the same number of games, usually at a benchmark point of the season. This time, I'm choosing 27 games, about 1/3 of a full NHL season. Here is each team's record at that point:

East         GP W  L OT PTS ROW
NY Rangers   27 17 6  4  38  16
Boston       27 17 9  1  35  14
Florida      27 15 8  4  34  13
Philadelphia 27 17 7  3  37  17
Pittsburgh   27 16 7  4  36  13
Toronto      27 15 10 2  32  12
Buffalo      27 14 11 2  30  12
Washington   27 14 12 1  29  13
--------------------------------
Ottawa       27 13 11 3  29  9
New Jersey   27 14 12 1  29  8
Winnipeg     27 12 11 4  28  11
Montreal     27 11 11 5  27  10
Tampa Bay    27 11 14 2  24  10
NY Islanders 27　9 12 6  24  9
Carolina     27  8 15 4  20  8
  
West         GP W  L OT PTS ROW
Minnesota    27 17 7  3  37  13
Detroit      27 17 9  1  35  16
Phoenix      27 15 9  3  33  13
Chicago      27 16 8  3  35  13
Vancouver    27 16 10 1  33  16
St. Louis    27 15 9  3  33  15
San Jose     27 15 10 2  32  12
Dallas       27 15 11 1  31  13
---------------------------------
Los Angeles  27 13 10 4  30  12
Edmonton     27 13 11 3  29  12
Nashville    27 12 11 4  28  12
Colorado     27 13 13 1  27  9
Calgary      27 12 13 2  26  12
Anaheim      27  8 14 5  21  7
Columbus     27  8 16 3  19  6

ROW is regulation/OT wins, the next tiebreaker after total wins.

Surprisingly, the Rangers are the best team in hockey through this point, but it isn't noticed as they have played fewer games. The Leafs are in 6th spot and would face southeast champion Florida in the playoffs.

In the west, Phoenix are the top seed in the Pacific, a point up on San Jose, who are 7th despite a decent 15-10-2 record which illustrates the strength of the conference.

I like to run through the playoffs based on season series, but some matchups have yet to occur, so I'll save that for the second edition in February, during which I'll do this exercise again when each team has completed 54 games.

Next Up

I'm flying to France tonight for my annual non-sports road trip. I do hope to catch one third-tier soccer game in Paris over the weekend but after that I'll be driving around to smaller towns with no sports on the menu. I'll be back in Japan for the new year and should have a trip planned for early 2012 that involves more Leafs games, so check back then.

Happy holidays everyone!

Best,

Sean

Read More

Boston Celtics to win the NBA title

A couple of weeks ago I posted the NHL mid-season standings and used the results of the season series to date to predict that the LA Kings would defeat the Boston Bruins in the Stanley Cup Final. It was a bit of a joke as LA have been crap since then, but it also shows you just how tight the playoff races are in the NHL.

That's not the case in the NBA, which has just passed its halfway point. Here, the conference leaders are just so much better that there is little point in doing this sort of predictive analysis; the top teams almost never lose a season series. Boston hit the midway mark at 32-9 to lead the East while San Antonio dominated the West with a 35-6 record. With so few defeats, it would be very unlikely that either team would have lost an intra-conference season series and that turns out to be the case. So Boston would face San Antonio in the final and would win based on their victory back on Jan 5.

Using 41-game records and NBA tiebreakers, the playoffs would set up like this:

Boston over Charlotte

Atlanta over Orlando

Miami over Philadelphia

New York over Chicago*

San Antonio over Portland

Dallas over Utah

Denver over LA Lakers*

Oklahoma City over New Orleans

Boston over Atlanta

Miami over New York

San Antonio over Dallas

Oklahoma City over Denver

Boston over Miami

San Antonio over Oklahoma City

Boston over San Antonio*

The * represents a series where the team with the better record is losing the season series. The Lakers-Denver matchup is a bit unfair; they played once in Denver before the midway point with the Nuggets winning and the Lakers home win a couple of days ago isn't counted here. Not that it matters, San Antonio wins the West over all comers.

This analysis isn't that interesting because talent differential between the top teams and those sneaking into the playoffs is significant in basketball. In the NHL, teams can be quite close in talent levels and there is no dominant squad, so it can be a bit more fun to guess what might happen, and the playoffs will have more upsets.

Still, with blockbuster trades to come (Carmelo Anthony for example) and injuries lurking, anything can happen, so I'll post another update for the NBA after 62 games have been played. Check back in 2 months for that.

Best,

Sean

Read More