Final World Cup Stats

It's all over after 31 days, 64 games, and lots of sleepless nights in Japan. The 2010 World Cup is done but I'm going to add one final post with some pointless statistics.

The final was rather depressing with fouls being the order of the day. Congratulations to Spain and poor sportsmanship to Netherlands who blamed English ref Howard Webb for their loss. I don't think it was Webb that couldn't score an easy goal on a breakaway, nor did he score for Spain there. Yeah, he missed the corner that was due to the Netherlands, but that wasn't the key play of the game. Perhaps the most frustrating part of the game was the constant questioning of every call by the offending team. Players should play and let the referees ref. Kudos to Webb for maintaining his cool, I'd have sent off most of the players by halftime.

Stupid Stats

Out of the 64 games, nearly half (31) were decided by a goal with a further 16 ending in a draw (including those that went to penalty kicks). So nearly three-quarters of the games were close, a stat that no other sport or tournament can lay claim to. The most common score was 1-0 (17 times) with 2-1 happening 11 times.

South America had the best record against other confederations, going 12-6-6 overall (W-D-L). But all 6 of their losses were against European sides, and five of them happened in the knockout tournament. Europe was 15-10-9 as a whole but took the top 3 spots, which is what matters. I mentioned earlier that Japan and Korea advancing to the knockout stage placed Asian football above that of Africa, but their records were not that different: Asia went 4-6-7 while Africa was 4-6-10. CONCACAF is the smallest federation and went 2-4-5. All of these records are against squads from other federations, so games such as Netherlands v Denmark are ignored.

Looking back on the whole tournament, the quality was a bit lacking at times, but it was a lot of fun watching in Japan, where you have so many nationalities cheering on their teams. With the next tournament in Brazil, the game times will be late night and early morning, so it will be a different experience in 2014. Time to start planning the road trip?

Best,

Sean

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More on the World Cup

I trust you were all watching the quarterfinal matches over the last couple of days. Perhaps the best two days of soccer that you can get. The South African dominance that was the story of the first round ended rather quickly with 3 of the squads losing to those from Europe.

The Netherlands shocked Brazil and most pundits with that gutsy 2-1 win, but I expected the Dutch to prevail after Brazil's poor performance against the Portuguese combined with the low altitude setting of the game. In reality, I doubt that the location of the stadium had much to do with the outcome, rather the Brazilians lost their composure after the first Dutch goal. It was fascinating to watch them self-destruct in 40 minutes, highlighted by Melo's red card. By the way, the first Dutch marker was originally given as an own goal to Melo, but later was credited to Wesley Sneijder, who also scored the second.

Ghana were dealt a cruel blow with the Suarez handball on the goal line. In hockey, if you throw your stick at the puck when it is going toward an empty net, a goal is awarded anyway. I wonder if a similar rule would make sense here. Still, it was not that surprising for Gyan to miss given that he had the hopes of a continent weighing on him.

Uruguay now play the Netherlands, who will win because the football gods will not allow the South Americans to advance after the way they knocked out Ghana.

In yesterday's contests, the ruthless Germans showed that their thrashing of England was no fluke. A team has scored four goals in a game four times in the tournament with 3 of those being the Germans. Argentina had their chances but the Germans are just too good on the counter-attack. Sad to see Maradona go.

Spain bested Paraguay and are the only remaining side that have yet to appear in a finals. Unfortunately, they face the Germans in a rematch of the 2008 Euro championship, so it's unlikely that they will end that streak this time around.

I think most are expecting an all-European final with Germany and the Netherlands to face off. I can't disagree with that, it does seem like those are the two best teams left. The officiating has improved (how could it not?) and I expect that we will see the best referees for the last four games.

Finally, the yellow-card carryover rule means that all 4 squads are missing key players for their semi-final clashes. I hope FIFA revisits the rule before the next World Cup. Two cautions in five matches simply is not grounds for a suspension. The most obvious example is Germany's Thomas Mueller, whose booking for a handball will cause him to sit out the game against Spain. He's scored 4 goals so far but Germany should be able to rely on their other strikers to pick up the slack.

A bit of trivia: only two teams from outside Europe and South America have made it to the semi-finals in World Cup history: USA in 1930 and South Korea in 2002. Both lost. It's amazing that other regions can't catch up even after 80 years.

Enjoy the semi-finals!

Best,

Sean

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FIFA=Frustratingly Incompetent Football Arbiters

Just a bit more on the ridiculously stubborn attitude of FIFA regarding video replay. There's been no comment on either of the poor decisions that marred Sunday's games. But there has been an immediate decision related to in-stadium video replay. In each venue, there is a video screen that shows the television feed. If you are watching the games, you will have noticed that fans that themselves on the screen and act accordingly. FIFA has a policy, however, of cutting away when a controversial call is replayed.

Well, during the Argentina-Mexico game, the first Argentine goal was offside but allowed. But the video screen didn't cut away, so the fans and players saw the replay which clearly indicated the goal should not have counted. The Mexicans went ballistic and there were problems at halftime as they accosted the officials on their way to the tunnel.

So FIFA's brilliant solution? Censor replays. The most surprising sentence from the article:

FIFA spokesman Nicolas Maingot said Monday that replaying the incident was
"a clear mistake."

What!? The clear mistake was the non-call. How can you be so arrogant to ignore that? Instead, FIFA blames the stadium replay guys (who are not FIFA employees). But wait! Aren't errors supposed to be a "part of football"? That's been Sepp Blatter's take for years. I guess what he means is that errors that affect the outcome of the game are a part of football, but errors that allow fans to realize how poor the officiating is are not. Bah. The continued hypocrisy here amazes me. The rest of the world is far more tolerant than I am towards such fan-unfriendly behavior.

Yellow Card Carryover

One thing that I haven't mentioned is the change to the yellow card carryover rules. In previous World Cups, if a player received two yellow cards in his first three games, he would miss the next game due to suspension. But when the knockout tournament began, single yellow cards would be nullified; i.e. the player would start with a blank slate. But during the knockout phase, two yellows in any two games would mean the player would miss the next game. So getting cautioned in the round of 16 and then again in the semi-final would render the player unusable for the final. This happened to Germany's Michael Ballack in 2002.

So FIFA's brilliant decision to avoid this situation? Yellow cards from the first round now carry over until the quarter finals are complete! Yes, if a player gets two yellow cards in five games, he will miss the semi-final! That's 450 minutes of soccer in which you are allowed but one caution. But if you get a yellow in the quarter-finals, then one in the semis, no problem. Given how card-happy some of these referees have been, it's simply not right.

The cancellation of yellows after the quarterfinals will only affect the 4 teams that advance, but already the quarterfinals will have players missing a game because they picked up two bookings in 4 games. I don't believe any league has such a rule (the Premier League rule is 5 yellows leads to a suspension) and it shouldn't be so strict for the most important tournament.

The right solution is to maintain the rule for stage 1. Then in the knockout tournament, cautions in consecutive games lead to a suspension. But a single yellow would be deleted if the player completes another game without going in the book. Seems simple to me.

OK, that's enough complaining about this. I've decided to accept the World Cup for what it is: a great tournament that is run by an old-boy network of stubborn incompetents. I'm not even going to blame the referees any more. The FIFA selection process chooses officials who should not be on the world stage. When they get there, we should not be surprised they fail miserably. Until FIFA changes its attitudes towards the selection process, these stories will continue.

Japan plays tonight, here's hoping for a game free of controversy.

Best,

Sean

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Tainted Tournament?

Just two days ago I posted that the officiating in the World Cup wasn't that bad. I take it back now. For the Uruguayan referees to miss such an obvious goal is inexplicable (I am talking about England's disallowed goal when the ball clearly bounced over the line and back out). I am not saying that England would have won if the goal had counted; they were clearly outplayed by Germany. Nonetheless coming back from 2-0 down with 2 quick markers may have changed their strategy or given them some life.

At this level to have such a mistake that cannot be corrected is no longer acceptable. Sadly, Sepp Blatter will continue to run FIFA like it is 1966, contending that errors are part of the game. That's true. In fact, it seems like errors are the lead story of nearly every game now. But when we have technology to reduce the number of errors, it should be adopted. In the case last night, the fourth official should have immediately stopped the game and awarded the goal. Let's have the players deciding the outcome, not 3 stooges from Uruguay.

For fans, what is the point of watching anymore? Why waste our time when the result can be so easily dictated by bad decisions? I'm really not sure. I skipped the Argentina-Mexico game and understand now that there was another grievous error that allowed Argentina to open the scoring. It's disappointing that soccer should demonstrate such staggering incompetence on the world stage, but it's nothing new. What is more disappointing is that FIFA refuses to change its misguided policies on referee selection and the use of instant replay.

So is the tournament tainted? Despite my points above, I don't think so. We just have to accept that international soccer is a sport with horrible officiating run by a small group of dinosaurs. For us raised on North American sports where refs are generally competent (I'll ignore the NBA here) and the administration receptive to change, it's tough to understand. But that's the way it is and if you want to enjoy the World Cup, you'll just have to accept it.

Best,

Sean

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World Cup Thoughts

South America Shows Off

Well, the first round is over after 48 games in 15 days. It was a fascinating ride with the world watching. Both Korea and Japan advanced which puts Asian soccer firmly above that in Africa for the time being, especially given the tournament's location. But the big winners are the South American squads, who went a combined 10-1-4 and had all 5 participants advance to the knockout stage.

Europe saw only 6 of their 13 nations go through with a combined record of 10-9-10 against other confederations. I wonder if the higher altitudes had anything to do with that. South American teams have the natural advantage of playing at higher altitudes, so their bodies are used to the reduced oxygen levels. Other teams spent their training periods in higher altitude locations (Japan used an alpine training camp in Switzerland for example) but it still takes time to become fully acclimated. As time passes, the other teams should get used to the conditions, but the advantage is still there.

Both Asian teams play South American sides in the round of 16. Paraguay and Japan will play in Pretoria which is 1200 metres above sea level so there may be some advantage for Paraguay there. In the case of Korea vs Uruguay, the game is at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium which is near sea level, so the potential Uruguayan advantage is negated.

Goal Scoring

The first 16 games saw only 25 goals scored and pundits decried the defensive game. But the World Cup usually starts slowly as teams need time to get a feeling for themselves. The second and third rounds were superb with 76 goals in the 32 games. Slovakia's seeing off of Italy in a 3-2 thriller and Japan using two phenomenal free kicks to advance past Denmark were the highlights for me. The biggest disappointment was Brazil and Portugal playing to a stale 0-0 draw that sees both through.

Overall, there were 6 scoreless draws in the first round and another 13 1-0 games. But out of the 96 teams that were fielded (2 per game), 61 scored at least a goal, which is not a bad showing.

Problems

Some say the biggest problem with the games so far has been the officiating. It's true that yellow cards were handed out with abandon and there were several controversial calls that led to widespread complaints. This is nothing new; FIFA has a policy to use referees from each confederation and the standards are obviously inconsistent. I think the main reason that the refs have seen such bad press is that the US were victims of a phantom foul call that cost them a goal and a win against Slovenia (in reality, giving up 2 first-half markers denied the Yanks the win). But the American sportswriters vented against the easy target of the ref and poor decisions became the storyline. But after 48 games, I think the number of horrible calls wasn't that large and overall the refereeing wasn't that bad (think back to the Italy Korea game in 2002).

Rather, I think the largest concern here is the playacting by the athletes, who when touched lightly by an opponent, fall dramatically to the ground and writhe as if they have been shot. The ref is often guilted into giving a card despite having not seen the infraction (how could he when there wasn't one?!). The shamelessness of such behaviour should be challenged by FIFA and players who are found to be guilty after the fact should be punished. It really brings soccer down a few notches when players behave like little children.

The vuvuzelas also have received some bad reviews. Yeah, they are annoying, but banning them is not an option. It's part of the game there and it would smack of colonial attitudes to hold the tournament there and then tell the fans to keep their horns at home.

The Knockout Stage

Now we have 8 games in 4 days before a breather. According to the FIFA Rankings we can expect the US and Brazil in one semi-final and Germany against Spain in the other. But these rankings are pretty useless, as 45th-ranked Japan beat #19 Cameroon and #36 Denmark among other "upsets".

Looking at the draw and sticking with the South American superiority theme, Argentina and Brazil look good as the finalists. But if defense wins championships, look for Uruguay and Portugal, neither of whom conceded a goal in the first round.

But a more detailed analysis that includes the altitude of the stadiums shows that the Netherlands has a good chance as their first 3 matches (should they continue to win) would be at sea level. In fact, out of the 16 matches, 7 will take place at these low-altitude venues, so much of the advantage will be lost.

What do I think? I like Argentina's enthusiasm and their crazy coach Maradona in one half. In the other I'll pick against Brazil after their poor showing last night and say the Netherlands will take it given the above. I am usually quite wrong on these, but it's fun to guess.

I won't be making any updates in the next four days as I'll be watching soccer or sleeping, but check back on Wednesday for thoughts on the round of 16.

Hope you all are enjoying the tournament!

Best,

Sean

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Back to Work - for a day

In what appeared to be a shocking development, I tentatively accepted a 1-month contract at my previous firm. The project looked to be a lot of work, so I expected to be taking it easy on the sports watching and blogging for the next month. But as it turns out, the project didn't really require my services, so it turns out that I won't be working there after all. So I'll still be here to bore you all with my sporting updates.

There's not much going on in February other than the Winter Olympics and the completely meaningless East Asian soccer championship, where Japan invites Korea, China, and Hong Kong over for a little tournament. As an aside, Japan was shutout by China on the weekend, which makes me wonder how they plan to beat the Netherlands, Denmark, or Cameroon on their way to the World Cup semi-finals (their stated goal).

I'm off to Phuket in early March to play in a street hockey tournament, then Manila to meet friends. After that, a Japanese road trip is planned - more on that later. The next big trip isn't until early May, when I revisit California and Arizona for some baseball and maybe some NBA or NHL playoffs. As usual, updates will be available here.

Best,

Sean

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World Cup Thoughts

As mentioned in the previous post, the World Cup draw was held on Friday. Here are the groups along with each team's FIFA ranking and the total rankings for the group:

Group A (127)       Group B (94)      Group C (84)        Group D (84)
France        7     Argentina    8    England       9     Germany     6
Mexico        15    Greece       12   USA           14    Serbia      20
Uruguay       19    Nigeria      22   Algeria       28    Australia   21
South Africa  86    South Korea  52   Slovenia      33    Ghana       37


Group E (83)        Group F (145)     Group G (107)       Group H (74)
Netherlands   3     Italy        4    Brazil        2     Spain       1
Cameroon      11    Paraguay     30   Portugal      5     Chile       17
Denmark       26    Slovakia     34   Côte d'Ivoire 16    Switzerland 18
Japan         43    New Zealand  77   North Korea   84    Honduras    38

First, the FIFA ranking is really not that meaningful as they change every month and one win can really propel you up the standings. Still, it's interesting to see that 3 groups are almost identically ranked, while Group H looks to be the strongest as a whole. But I think you have to ignore the lowest-ranked team, which shows that it's really Group G that is the toughest. North Korea is not likely to advance, but it's quite possible for the Ivory Coast to knock off one of the other giants. The Brazil-Portugal matchup should be very interesting as they close out group play on June 25th.

France got the lucky spot in Group A, which shows that the football gods still favor Les Bleus despite Henry's handball. Italy also has a relatively easy group. Of course, England and the US will be the most anticipated match although both teams should advance regardless.

Playoffs

That leads me to the next point which is trying to figure out how the playoffs shape up. Historically, most of the seeded teams make it past the group stage. In the 3 World Cups that featured 32 teams, only 3 out of the 24 seeds fell at the first hurdle (Spain in 1998, France and Argentina in 2002). Obviously South Africa is likely to be a team that fails to make it to the next round, and they've drawn two other high-altitude nations, so their natural home advantage is somewhat diminished. I can't imagine any of the other seeds dropping out, although Germany will have it tough with 3 good teams in group D.


The round of 16 sees the top team in Group A play the second-place finisher in Group B. Similarly C1 plays D2, E1 plays F2 and G1 plays H2. The other half of the bracket sees the reversals with B1 taking on A2, etc. This way, two teams from the same group cannot meet again until the final.


In 1998 and 2006, six of eight seeds made it to the quarter-finals (only 4 did so in 2002). I think there'll be at least one seed falling here, and it might be Spain or England who face stiff competition from the crossover group.


In these three recent tourneys, the semi-finals featured 3 seeds and one "outsider". It's interesting to note though that in 2002, South Korea was seeded due as a host nation and they made it to the final four along with unseeded Turkey. In 1998 it was Croatia, and in 2006 it was Portugal - both those Cups were hosted in Europe. So I think the trend will continue, and I look for Nigeria to make it to the final four.


I like Brazil and the Netherlands to meet in the final, with the Dutch taking their first World Cup. Hey, it's no fun predicting another victory for Brazil or Italy, so I'm going out on a limb (well, picking the #3 team really isn't much of a risk). The one thing you can bet on is that everything I wrote here will be entirely wrong. Whatever the case, it should be a great tournament staring 6 months from now. I can hardly wait!


Best,


Sean

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World Cup Draw

Tomorrow sees the 2010 World Cup draw whereby the 32 teams are divided into 8 groups for the tournament. There are 4 pots of 8 teams each and one team is drawn from one pot for each group. This way, no group can have more than one team from the same continent, except Europe, which has a maximum of 2 teams per group.

Here are the pots along with the FIFA rankings for each team, effective November 20th (just after the final qualifying games were completed). It should be noted that FIFA actually seeded the teams based on their October rankings, which is why England is seeded rather than Portugal or France.

Pot 1              Pot 2            Pot 3               Pot 4
Spain         1    USA         14   Cameroon      11    Portugal     5
Brazil        2    Mexico      15   Côte d'Ivoire 16    France       7
Netherlands   3    Australia   21   Chile         17    Greece       12
Italy         4    Honduras    38   Uruguay       19    Switzerland  18
Germany       6    Japan       43   Nigeria       22    Serbia       20
Argentina     8    South Korea 52   Algeria       28    Denmark      26
England       9    New Zealand 77   Paraguay      30    Slovenia     33
South Africa  86   North Korea 84   Ghana         37    Slovakia     34

There are eight seeded teams in Pot 1, but one of those is host South Africa, which is the worst ranked country in the competition. Pot 4 is the unseeded Europeans, Pot 3 has the African and South American teams while Pot 2 has the Asian and North American teams plus New Zealand. The losers here are the Yanks and Mexicans, who miss a chance to play the relatively easier Asian teams.

As far as I know, teams from Pot 1 will be drawn into slot one in their group, Pot 2 into slot 2 etc. As the schedule is already decided, this means that each group will end with Team 1 playing Team 4, so there could be some great battles for first or second place in some groups.

As mentioned, England and Argentina are seeded in front of both Portugal and France, so it is possible that a couple of groups could have two of the best 7 teams in the world. It be a tough draw for the other countries if two of their opponents were Brazil and Portugal for example.

Because South Africa are in group A, those drawn into Group B might have an easier road to the Quarter Finals. Imagine that group A also includes North Korea, Paraguay, and Denmark – none of those teams would frighten a top team in the round of 16. Another interesting point is that many of the games are at a higher altitude. This could be beneficial for Mexico or Chile for example, who are more used to playing at these heights. There’s really no end of potential storylines.

You can run your own mock draws, as I’m sure many people are doing. For Japan, they’ll be the worst ranked team in their group (unless they are drawn into Group A) so their hopes would be to get two of the weaker teams from Pots 3 and 4. A draw of Spain, Cameroon, and Portgual would likely mean a quick end to Okada’s dreams of a semi-final berth. On the other hand, a draw of Greece, Algeria, and South Africa may spark celebrations.

To me, this is a pretty exciting event that starts fans dreaming of next summer. It will be televised live at 1:30 am Saturday in Japan (11:30 am Friday on the East Coast). I’ll be staying up for it and hoping for England and Japan to be drawn in the same group!

Best,

Sean

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